Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Steepen the Curve

We're all hunkering down in an effort to "flatten the curve" of the novel coronavirus spread.  In order to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, we're supposed to help spread  out the incidence of the disease to a manageable caseload.

This is entirely backwards, and points out one of the many failures of the American health care system.

What are the economic consequences of shutting down the economy?  Aside from the so-far-projected $80 billion bailout of the airline industry, what about the $1,000/month basic income payment to each adult for, say, four months.  There's another trillion dollars.  We've lost a few trillion in "vanished" wealth in the stock market.  There are plenty of other victim sectors - just how well is the gig economy going to recover?  Ready for another housing market foreclosure debacle?

Suppose, instead, we had EXCESS health system capacity to care for the whole shebang.  Sure, we'd have to have more hospitals, and more health care professionals, all of which would sit idle during health emergency down times.  Still ... one can imagine the total economic costs would be considerably lower.

It would still be reasonable for us older, more vulnerable geezers to keep a low profile.  Retirees not going to work isn't going to cause much of a hit to the system.

In any system, enabling sick people to stay home from work would be a productivity-enhancing policy.

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